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Your next phone upgrade may not be about faster download speeds or crisper video streaming, but whether those networks can handle billions of intelligent agents and systems making decisions for you.
For decades, new generations of mobile technologies have helped to reshape not just connectivity, but how we go about our daily lives. 3G popularized smartphones and made mobile internet mainstream. 4G brought about apps, enabling everything from mobile banking to video streaming. 5G then expanded connectivity into factories, vehicles, sensors and other industrial systems beyond the humble smartphone.
AI is also expected to play a big role behind the scenes helping operators optimise network performance, reduce energy consumption and manage increasingly complex infrastructure.
6G and AI are increasingly intertwined
However, 6G progress is playing out amid growing geopolitical tensions and semiconductor supply chain issues, making this maybe one of the most strained developments to date. The scale of transformation that lies ahead is huge (with each generation seemingly growing exponentially). But the architects behind the world’s wireless standards continue to believe in one core principle – global cooperation matters most.
From the 3G era’s 3GPP vs. cdma2000 rivalry to the rise of LTE and WiMax in the 2010s, if we’ve learned anything it’s that the standard backed by the largest ecosystems, broadest device compatibility and strongest economies of scale will always win.
As 6G starts to take shape, I spoke with Ericsson engineers and IEEE members Johan Sköld, Erik Dahlman and Stefan Parkvall to discuss what the next era in wireless communications will look like.
The trio discussed the compromises that define global wireless standards, why AI will have a fundamental impact on 6G design, how Nordic countries became central to telecommunications, and why they think human creativity isn’t going anywhere, even in an AI-first era.
- At Ericsson, you have been instrumental in shaping 3G, 4G and 5G technology, something that has transformed human communications and the society we now live in. What is the secret ingredient of your partnership? How come you three managed to stick together for so long?
One important reason is that we have fun at work! The work environment at Ericsson Research is open and discussion-friendly with a lot of very skilled colleagues. The amount of knowledge in this group of people is astonishing, and discussing technical problems in such an environment is very stimulating.
Many people within Ericsson have been involved in the development of cellular technologies, and many of them have spanned several generations. This is always best with a mix of people. You, of course, benefit a lot from having experienced people who “have done this before” and are aware of the pitfalls, etc.
At the same time, you need new people to come in, with fresh ideas and who are not fixed on “old thinking”. The key to success is really to mix these two, the “experience” with the “fresh ideas”, in order to create new innovations without spending a lot of time inventing what has already been invented.
- As a team of seasoned engineers, what was the most difficult technological compromise you had to make so ensure the wireless communications standards remained as unified globally. Did the fear of another Betamax/VHS war ever came to your common minds? (worth talking about CDMA?)
For 4G, and even more for 3G, there were really competing technologies. In the case of 3G, there was a parallel organisation to 3GPP, named 3GPP2, that developed a cdma2000-based technology that was at one stage fairly widely deployed in parallel to the 3GPP 3G technology.
However, eventually the 3GPP technology came to dominate completely, not because it was technologically superior but mainly due to the fact that, from the start, it already had the largest footprint. This meant that it had a fundamental benefit in terms of economy-of-scale leading to superior device availability and reduced deployment cost for operators.
Nevertheless, the competition between 3GPP and 3GPP2 was in many ways really beneficial as it created a constant pressure to continuously improve both technologies.
In the case of 4G, there was initially some competition from the WiMax technology. But also in that case, the sheer size and footprint of 3GPP was a key deciding factor. Once again, the competition between the technologies was very beneficial in terms of sharpening the technology.
In summary:
- Competition between technologies, at least at an early stage of development, is very beneficial in terms of driving technology advances
- In the end, global footprint and the associated economy-of-scale is exceptionally important
- 3G brought about the smartphone, 4G extended its importance – thanks to apps – and 5G was all about the internet of things. What will 6G be about and what will the killer app (or apps) be?
Defining a single killer app is impossible – the only thing one can be sure of is that the prediction will be incorrect! For 3G, (ISDN-like) packet data and video calls were assumed to be the ‘killer apps’ – no one knew about smartphones when 3G was developed in the late ‘90s – and not until HSPA, an evolution of 3G, came true, packet data.
This was timely as the first smartphones started to appear around the same time. Together, this led to a rapid increase in the data volumes and new use cases, creating a platform for innovation.
When 4G was developed, the service to focus on was thus clear – deliver high-performance internet connectivity – and with that came the explosion of apps we see today.
In the early 5G days, mmWave was in focus, but it later changed to a more use-cases oriented view of ‘going beyond the smartphone’, that is, to deliver connectivity not only for smartphones but also for IoT, industrial use cases, machines, robots and so forth.
6G is likely to continue in this direction, but at a more massive scale. Use cases that will merge in the 5G networks such as AR/VR/XR, will also be supported in 6G but at a much large scale.
The very rapid development of AI/ML will also have a profound impact on the 6G design. AI will be used in the networks to increase performance, but networks will also have to handle AI as a user. Agentic AI, that is, AI agents that interact with other agents and take decisions to meet an overarching objective set by the human user, is one example.
- Scandinavian countries gave us many household names in telecommunications: Skype, Ericsson, Nokia to name a few. What is it about that part of the world that allowed for such entities to evolve and flourish? Education? Will to innovate?
That’s a good (and wide) question!
A key thing when it comes to the development of the cellular technology was really the government-controlled public telephone providers of the Nordic countries. That may seem strange in today’s de-regulated world but in the 1970s and 1980s these organisations had massive resources and were also very much in the forefront of technology.
They jointly developed and deployed the first-generation analog mobile-communication technologies leading the systems that were exceptionally successfully. They were also very instrumental in the early development of GSM.
This led to the Nordic countries being far ahead of most other companies, including highly developed countries, in terms of mobile-communication usage far into the 1990s. The fact that the Nordic countries are, in general, positive and eager to try new technology has also contributed to this.
Another important thing is that the Nordic countries are rather small (but not too small) countries, the companies of which cannot typically rely on, and thus be constrained by big home markets. Instead, there has always been a strong pressure to be innovative and stay sharp in order to be able to compete in the global market. This has been the case for many decades. For example, Ericsson has had the entire world as its market since the 19th century.
- What role AI and machine learning (and dare I even throw in quantum computing) have – if any – in shaping wireless telecommunications in the future? Do you think this trio (another one) could one day supplement or even replace you three?
There have been tremendous enhancements in the AI and machine-learning area the last 10 years, and it will have a big impact on the future wireless-access solutions such as 6G in several different ways.
On one hand, AI entities and agents will appear as new “users” putting new demands on the services that needs to be provided by the wireless networks.
On the other hand, the AI functionality within the wireless networks themselves is expected to provide large benefits in terms of both improved network performance and reduced cost for operation of the network. The result is an intelligent fabric where AI and wireless connectivity play equally important roles.
Note that this does not mean that AI will “take over” or replace need for engineers and researchers in the future. AI should be seen as a tool to make engineering and research more efficient, giving the human brains more time to spend on where it is unique, the innovative and creative thinking.
Quantum computing is obviously a much more ‘in-the-future’, and we even dare to say, potential technology. Its relation to wireless telecommunication is even more speculative. Still, this is, of course, an area that a company like Ericsson needs to follow to ensure that we are at the right place at the right time.
Then one can consider the relevance of quantum technology more generally, not just quantum computing, for wireless communication. In some sense we already have to take quantum physics into account because it is at the bottom of much of the technology we are already using.
Then we have the area of quantum cryptography, which is probably the first area, within what is sometimes referred to as quantum information theory, which will have practical usage. And at some stage, one then will probably need to communicate quantum information also over wireless networks. Once again, this is an important area to follow.
- Can you tell me about the significance of the IEEE Jagadish Chandra Bose Medal in Wireless Communications and what this recognition means to you?
It means a lot. IEEE is a by-far the most respected organisation within the engineering area. It feels like an unprecedented recognition of the work we have done.
But perhaps even more, it is a recognition of the importance of the wireless communication technologies and thus a recognition of all the people that have been involved in this great journey.
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